(qlmbusinessnews.com Thur, 3rd Aug, 2023) London, UK —
Moderna Inc (MRNA.O) has projected a revenue of up to $4 billion from its COVID-19 vaccine as sales transition from government contracts to the private market this year. The company foresees a growing demand for the vaccine, matching the market for flu shots by 2024.
For this year, Moderna expects $4 billion in sales to governments, while projecting sales of $2 to $4 billion in the private market in the United States and other countries. Previously, the company had anticipated $5 billion in sales from government contracts.
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The demand for COVID vaccines in the government-backed market has decreased, resulting in a significant decline in sales for Moderna and its rival, Pfizer (PFE.N), in the second quarter. Both companies are now preparing for an autumn vaccination campaign using updated shots targeting the XBB.1.5 Omicron subvariant of the coronavirus. They plan to set higher prices for these updated shots in the private market compared to what they charged governments during the peak of the pandemic.
Moderna expects U.S. demand for COVID shots to reach 50 to 100 million doses in the fall season, based on the size of the flu market, which the company estimates at 150 million doses annually in the U.S. The Chief Commercial Officer, Arpa Garay, mentioned that over time, with the high disease burden and potential combinations with RSV and flu shots, demand could trend closer to about 150 million doses.
Regarding pricing, Moderna and Pfizer have not yet disclosed the final price for their vaccines in the private market, but they have indicated that it will be substantially higher than what they charged governments earlier.
During the second quarter, Moderna's COVID vaccine sales dropped by 94% to $293 million, exceeding analysts' expectations. The company attributed $1 billion of anticipated vaccine sales to governments in 2023 to be deferred to the following year due to countries' decisions based on COVID dynamics.
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Moderna's research and development costs surged 62% to $1.1 billion in the quarter as the company aims to replace declining COVID vaccine sales with other products, such as its experimental flu and RSV vaccines using messenger RNA technology. The company is eagerly awaiting the Phase 3 flu data later this quarter and remains optimistic about the rest of its pipeline, with plans for the 2024 launch of its next commercial product, an RSV vaccine.
In the second quarter, Moderna reported a net loss of $3.62 per share, narrower than analysts' average estimate of a $4.04 loss. Despite the challenges, Moderna continues to strive for innovation and progress in the vaccine market.
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