(qlmbusinessnews.com . Sat 1st Nov, 2025) London, UK —
Unexpected October Drop in Bitcoin Value: Analysts Divided on Future Predictions
Bitcoin's “Uptober” Tradition Ends in a Loss, Stirring Trader Divide
For the first time in seven years, Bitcoin is poised to conclude October with a loss, marking the end of its much-celebrated “Uptober” streak and leaving the trading community split on future prospects.
Historically, October has been a robust month for Bitcoin, earning the nickname “Uptober” due to its generally positive performance. Stretching back to 2013, the cryptocurrency has only seen declines during this month twice before, in 2014 and 2018. This record of gains seemed unbreakable with a six-year winning streak from 2019 through to 2024. However, 2025 is set to buck this trend as Bitcoin's value has dropped by 3.35% this October, with trading hours dwindling.
As the final trading day of the month approaches, the crypto community watches eagerly. Analyst Jelle voiced the prevailing sentiment on X, saying, “Last day of the month – we need a strong green candle today or we’ll see our first red October close in 7 years.”
The downturn comes on the back of a mid-month flash crash spurred by new US-China tariff threats, and even the Federal Reserve's decision to cut rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday has done little to buoy investor mood. “October turned red for the first time in 7 years!” exclaimed TraderAAG on X, reflecting on the humbling effect this month has had on many in the crypto space.
Analysts are conflicted about what this unexpected setback means for Bitcoin's future. Some see the red October as merely a prelude to a stronger November rally, based on historical performances. Others, recalling the last red October in 2018, which prefaced a drastic 36.57% drop in November, counsel caution.
Timothy Peterson, an author and analyst, notes the lack of a clear correlation between Bitcoin's October performance and its actions in subsequent months. Yet, he acknowledges that typically, Bitcoin's growth slows in Q4 following a weak October. “The 3-month return for Bitcoin after a weak October averages 11% (2016-); for strong Octobers, it's 21%,” he points out.
Despite the current uncertainty, November's historical data showcases its potential as Bitcoin's strongest month, boasting an average gain of 46% over 12 years. And with Q4 often being the best quarter for Bitcoin, witnessing average gains of 78%, the community holds its breath for a significant reversal.
In recent memory, Bitcoin surged by approximately 57% in Q4 2023 and 48% in Q4 2024, with a remarkable 480% rally from October to December 1 in 2017. Even during bear cycles like 2018's -42% and 2022's -15%, the last quarter consistently saw pivotal moves.
Only time will reveal whether Bitcoin can defy its recent losses and potentially soar towards $150,000 by the close of 2025, adhering to its history of dramatic final quarter rallies.
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